The American Stratfor research a new long-term forecast issued by the European Union that he will be broken down into China "communist dictatorship" and Russia will fall apart.
"It is unlikely that the Russian Federation is maintained in its current form"
- Start the Stratfor forecast for Russia dedicated chapter. According to the research is that Moscow "failed" revenues derived from energy devoted to the establishment of a self-sustaining economy finally experienced the Soviet Union of Russia and countries of the '90s to the' 80s may have a recurrence. The demographic decline, accompanied by process "will shake" Russia - enter the forecast.
This somewhat contradicts that George Friedman - founder and CEO of the research - recently said Russia will be able to recover, supported by the US sanctions, the recent depreciation of the ruble and difficulties due to falling oil prices. "The Russians have the strength to withstand even things that other nations megtörnének" - Friedman also said, referring to the country's military and political power is enough to raise himself up to Europe.
The American Institute predicts that Russia's territorial losses will affect not only the European part of the country. Russia will be weakened its control over the North Caucasus, while the Far Eastern regions, which are closely related countries: China, Japan and the United States may be approaching. The Karelian Republic and will strive to Stratfor, according to re-join Finland.
Due to the employment of former CIA analysts sometimes American institution "shadow CIA" also called also warns that the Russian Federal Security Service will not be able to save the country.
Russia will be a big test for the collapse of the USA - warns the study, noting that "Washington is the only power capable of addressing the issue." "Whatever it is control over Russian nuclear forces seizing - up to a military solution, as 'a stable and economically viable government' inauguration to be - it is likely that the next decade will be to deal with this issue," - says the research.
"The union is broken, he will decompose"
According to the report will fall apart into pieces not only in Russia. The Stratfor researchers say that because of the conflict between nationalism and multi-nationalism "of inter-European relations have become increasingly kiszámíthatatlanabbakká and bizonytalanabbakká. "A single policy does not meet all of Europe" - puts the Stratfor report.
The European Union "may persist in some sense", but relations between the countries will not be "binding" and "governance is primarily a bilateral or multilateral relations will be implemented to a limited extent" -olvasható.
Starch of the CCP?
As well as Japan and the "Asian tigers" - Taiwan and South Korea - China is finished, a low-wage country of cycles with high growth potential, and has entered a new phase of its development - the report notes that this phase of the slowdown can be characterized. China's own "hybrid path" following the centralization of political and economic powers, ensuring the Communist Party control over the army, and the territorial integrity of the country. The Stratfor, this results in a communist dictatorship regime-jellenégek gain.
Elsewhere - in the Middle East and North Africa - will take place later conflicts spread - says the report, which is published in the last two decades by the Stratfor reports of the fifth. Given in 1996, 2000, 2005 and 2010 for such studies in the US think tank.
"The world is a dangerous place to stay"
"As the pre-World War I period, so in this case the well-being and the instability go hand in hand" - said earlier, 1995-2005, projections of Stratfor. Then the agency predicted that "this decade, both between nations and within nations is growing disharmony period". China is expected to "growing instability will suffer", including fragmentation and the possibility of civil war. With Russia in 2005 also wrote that "slowly but surely collapse."
Stratfor scandal
Over the years, the company received a number of sources and methods of criticism, especially after the later imprisoned for hacking - Jeremy Hammond - a member of the hacker group Anonymous hacked the Stratfor's network and handed over the documents acquired by WikiLeaks. Hammond admitted in court that millions of sensitive internal email obtained for the Texas-based computer company.
Stratfor taken by the WikiLeaks published e-mailjeiből revealed that some employees of the intelligence firm close - have maintained contact with the US government and law enforcement agencies - and potentially illegal.
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